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The Y2K Problem |
By Craig Jensen, CEO, Executive Software
Craig Jensen takes a hard, practical look at the
realities of the Y2K problem - and how we can help to calm some of
the panic out there.
"The Y2K Problem," as I understand it, is
the unanticipated malfunction of a
computer due to a two-digit date in the year 2000
being misconstrued as the
corresponding month and day in the year 1900.
The problem can be divided
into two categories: (1) the malfunction of your own
computers and (2) the
malfunction of others' computers on which you depend.
The first priority should be to determine whether or
not there really is a
problem. For your own computers, this can be
done by direct inspection:
First, carefully backup all the data on a
computer. Then,
(a) Sometime outside normal production hours,
change the computer's system
date to 31 Dec 1999 at 11:55 PM.
(b) Observe the computer as the date ticks over to 1
Jan 2000 and note
whether it continues to function normally.
(c) After the date ticks over to the year 2000,
try shutting down the
computer and see if it will boot.
(d) One at a time, run each of your production
applications as if you were
doing the normal processing that is done on that
computer and note whether
the application functions normally or not.
(e) For any application that fails, obtain a fix
from the vendor of that
application or find a replacement application that is
Y2K-compliant. Then
retest.
(f) When you have finished testing, set the date
and time back to the
current date.
These very simple steps will result in a computer that
is extremely unlikely
to suffer from "the Y2K problem."
For computers on which you depend but which are out of
your direct control,
such as those of your banks, your suppliers, and so
on, contact the company
directly and request from them a certificate of Y2K
compliance. An example
of such a certificate can be found at the Executive
Software web site
(http://www.executive.com/year2OOO.htm)
Such a certificate is the minimum assurance that your
supplier will continue
to provide needed goods and services after December
31st. For critical
suppliers, of course, you should personally interview
them on their state of
preparedness and judge for yourself whether you should
depend on that
supplier, arrange a backup supplier, or switch
suppliers altogether.
As you can see, these measures are simple and not particularly
time-consuming. So what's all the fuss
about? Well, this is the point
where I have to go beyond what I know to be true and
into what I merely
suspect to be true.
I have never seen a computer problem attributable to a
date beyond 1999, nor
have I heard a rational explanation of any serious
problem with any computer
attributable to Y2K. There must be such problems
in some computers
somewhere, but I have seen no evidence of them.
Just to put that point into
perspective, I have a dozen computers in use in my
home, hundreds in the
Executive Software offices, and millions of customer
computers in the care
of our Tech Support. One friend said her laptop
would not boot after
setting the date to the year 2000. So she got a
new laptop. End of scene.
That's the only Y2K incident I have come across personally.
Apple claims that all MacIntosh computers use a date
system that will
function correctly well into the next millennium.
Microsoft states flatly
that its Windows NT operating system will function
correctly, as will its
Windows 98 operating system, provided that the latest
Windows 98 update is
downloaded and installed. Even without the
update, any Windows 98 problems are claimed to be remote and
cosmetic. Most any Windows 95 or earlier system can be upgraded
to Windows 98 for under $100. If your computer is a DOS or
Windows 3.1 system and fails the Y2K test, you can replace it with a
whole new Y2K compliant Windows 98 computer system for less than
$1,000. And by acting now, you have plenty of time to save up the
money to pay for it, even on a limited budget.
Any bank and most any business engages in transactions
that extend well into
the future, such as a 30-year home mortgage or a
credit card expiration
date. These businesses have already encountered
computer dates of 2000 or
greater and are still around conducting their business
affairs as usual. I
believe it is extremely unlikely that these businesses
will suddenly cease
to function when the present-time date reaches 2000,
after their having
successfully dealt with future dates of 2000+ for so
many years.
I can't imagine a microwave oven or refrigerator or an automobile
fuel-regulating computer caring what the date is.
Nor the Hoover Dam's
power generators, for that matter. Computers in
such environments are
called "embedded systems" and are extremely
focussed on a specific task,
such as counting seconds, maintaining temperatures and
monitoring pressures.
In the year 2000, a VCR might display 00 on the date
portion of its
front-panel display, but most VCRs, by survey, blink
"12:00" simply because
their owners have never set the date and time in the
first place.
In the world of business, the Y2K problem has been
well-publicized. Surely
every CEO and Chairman of the Board of any medium or
large business has
considered the problem. A CEO spends his life
anticipating future problems
for his business and heading them off before they can
cause trouble. And
how secure is a CEO's job if the stockholders lose
their dividends due to an
unforeseen Y2K glitch? Surely such a CEO would
be viewed as incompetent and
shown the door. My point is that the technical
problem, if it exists, would
have to escape pretty severe scrutiny and correction
efforts by people whose
livelihoods depend upon successfully doing so.
The bottom line is, from an analytical and technical
point of view, the
problem is minor to non-existent, having already been
addressed and fixed in
all but the most elusive cases or in the presence of
incompetent management.
Where an organization has a critical dependence upon a particular
computerized activity that may be susceptible to the
Y2K problem, it may
make more sense to simply replace the computer
lock-stock-and-barrel with a
new one that is Y2K certified than to endlessly
scrutinize and debug the old
system.
All that being said, I have to bring up the factor of
hysteria. As you may
know, some people are already emptying their bank
accounts, stocking up on
survival food and moving to the desert. It would
not take very many people
emptying their bank accounts to jeopardize the
solvency of a bank. Even if
a bank's computers function 100% perfectly on Y2K day,
excessive withdrawals prompted by fear could bring about a banking
crisis. The likelihood of this is offset by the fact that most
people will simply do nothing, and by the fact that the fear-driven
people are likely the smaller depositors, while the larger depositors
will probably have cooler heads.
What We Can Do
I met with the manager of my bank and suggested that
he send a letter to all
his customers telling them that the bank had done
everything imaginable to
ensure there would be no difficulties and that no
matter what happened, the
bank would guarantee the availability of its
depositors' funds and the
completion of its customers' transactions. He
instantly agreed. Banks and
governments need only instill confidence to head off
the financial aspects
of the crisis completely. But will they do
so? Probably not. Not on their
own, anyway. Perhaps if you contacted them
directly and suggested it, they
would do so, as my banker did.
You can be sure that the media will leave no stone
unturned when the time
comes, looking for any hint of trouble, scaring people
and sensationalizing
even the smallest problems. This could result in
panic and hysteria on the
part of some people. If so, it will be up to you
and me and other sensible
folks to calm down these people and show them that the
world is still there.
We can start now simply by being knowledgeable, calm
and confident on the
subject of Y2K. It can have a bigger effect than
you might think.
Given that there will be some hysteria (there already
is), this seems like a
job for all of us who are knowledgeable in computers
to get out there and
handle. Calm things down a bit. Instill confidence.
I also believe that we could have a considerable
calming influence merely by
encouraging others around us to look at the problem
rather than listen to
the alarmist rantings. Getting someone to set
the date on their computer to
31 Dec 1999 and watch it tick over to 2000 can go a
long way toward
deflating the potential hysteria. Either there
is a problem or there isn't,
and they will see it right there before their
eyes. Even if the computer
fails, the person should see that it is now a known
problem and they can do
something to fix it before the end of the year.
We can surely have an impact just by being there and
communicating about
this subject in a calm, confident manner: "Let's
have a look and see whether
there is a problem or not. Then we'll know what
to do about it."
What do you say? Let's put some order into our environment.
This information was provided by Executive Software, maker of the Diskeeper
defragmenter and Undelete for Windows NT. Visit their web site at
<http://www.executive.com> www.executive.com."
@Macarlo, Inc.
@Macarlo's Shareware & Web
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